Just 60 days in the past that Morgan Rogers was standing on the Stadium of Light pitch, looking confused while his coach berated him over not reading a penetrating pass. Back then, with the team endured a six-game winless run, doubts remained if Rogers' form were a sign or the source for Villa's wider issues.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
On Sunday, however, the manager's outburst was entirely much more joyous. As Rogers swept in his brace-sealing goal to restore Villa's lead, Emery ripped off his winter coat, spread his arms and shouted in triumph. Villa marched on to a 10th successive win , despite not winning any of their first six matches, now sit only three points adrift of the leaders Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Serious Hopefuls?
That’s a rather hard question to answer. History, the perceived status of Villa, argues against it. Moreover, their performances haven't been completely commanding during this run, even as the positive results have stacked up.
As per the data, twice all season have Villa had an expected goals figure significantly higher than their opponents. For a side who have just won a ten-match winning streak, the Villans look strangely fragile – yet currently the tight outcomes are going in their favour.
The Rogers Recipe
Their recent policy looks like to exchange chances with an opponent and wait for their talisman to save the day with some precise efforts. It happened away to Leeds, it occurred at West Ham, and it happened against Manchester United.
His opener stemmed from a brilliant finish, bent right inside the goal frame from the corner of the box. For his second was essentially a slight scruffier version of goal number one as he pounced on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Logic says not. In the recent win, the opponents managed a greater number of attempts and more efforts on goal. The team has won each of their last eight by just one goal. They have allowed goals in all except one of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean may well be the greatest opponent they must confront as the season progresses. Rogers, in all likelihood, will not continue to drilling the ball into the net's top corner week in, week out.
Reasons for Optimism
Maybe there exists a different scenario where, rather than luck running out, the level of play rises to match the results. Vital cogs may yet return to peak condition.
- The main striker might resume adding to his goal tally.
- Jadon Sancho might become the force he resembled at Borussia Dortmund.
- The injured centre-backs will eventually come back from the treatment room, fortifying a periodically leaky defence.
Perhaps there is in that the seeds of a genuine bid, however, it is improbable cannot keep relying on Morgan Rogers.
Relishing the Unlikely
Yet, nobody expected this. Few believed the team would occupy third at Christmas. And certainly back in October, nobody thought Rogers now would be spearheading a title charge while establishing himself as a crucial Three Lions star.
This remarkable period is to be savoured exactly since it seems so surreal. When Rogers stood in front of the North End at the final whistle leading the celebrations, it was clear to be thoroughly enjoying it. A feeling he has rightly earned. These runs of form are uncommon in the sport and must be appreciated.
